The Data of Demographic Change - Part 1
New data, new concerns
Released on January 26th, the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program’s (PEP) new state and national population estimates show that international migration fell in every state across the nation in 2025. This effectively halved the rate of population growth in some states and resulted in others seeing net negative population growth.
A key headline from this moment is just how anemic growth has become. Oregon’s average annual growth rate (AAGR) was 0.2% in 2024–2025—ranking 12th lowest nationally (for contrast, Washington is 7th highest at 0.92%). Record-slow growth is both a national and local story; it’s showing up sharply in the places we work.
Natural change is turning negative fast
All communities across the nation are trending toward negative natural change; that is to say, more people are dying than are born each year. This is nothing new: the aging population and falling fertility rate across the nation over the previous half century means this was all but inevitable. Twenty-one states were already experiencing net negative natural change in population as of 2020.
Oregon is part of that story in a notable way: its nominal natural growth since 2020 ranks 9th lowest nationally, at roughly -20,000, alongside Maine and Kentucky. This is an important indicator of the pace of aging, and one worth tracking over time to contextualize how quickly the demographic center of gravity in the U.S. is shifting.
As natural growth slows, migration carries more weight—and that engine is weakening
As natural population growth (from births net of deaths) slows, total population growth—and by extension, economic growth—becomes increasingly reliant on migration. The dependability of this engine is now on rocky ground given federal immigration policy and America’s new reputation for hostility toward immigrants.
Migration, both domestic and international, is also an under-appreciated part of Oregon’s longer story. In rough terms, Oregon recorded net in-migration of:
≈250,000 during the 2000s
≈315,000 during the 2010–2020 period
≈56,000 now, from 2020 to 2025 (on track for ~112,000 through 2030)
That is a major downshift, and peeling apart the domestic vs. international components is essential. Earlier narratives about Oregon’s economic fortunes hinged on the state’s ability to attract and retain migrants. What little immigration Oregon has seen over the last five years has been mostly buoyed by international migrants.
A closer look at Oregon
Population change is driven by three components: natural change (the number of births minus the number of deaths), domestic migration (from within the U.S.), and international migration (those arriving from outside the U.S.). In Oregon, there have been typically about 4,000 more deaths than births per year since 2021, leading to a natural growth rate hovering around -0.1% of total population each year.
But this is not the whole picture; there is domestic migration, which has netted out to about -1,200 people per year to average about -0.03% of population each year.
Finally, there is international migration; about 11,300 people added to Oregon per year, or about 0.3% of its population. The resulting net population growth for Oregon (in red) has averaged about 0.2% since 2021.
Source: US Census Population Estimates Program.
Source: US Census Population Estimates Program.
Source: US Census Population Estimates Program.
How is it looking in the states where ECO does the most work?
Across Western states, the data show a similar story set against a backdrop of declining growth trends. Looking at the components of population growth, differences emerge:
In Arizona, as domestic in-migration crested at the beginning of the decade, it was gradually complemented by an increase in international migration. Despite a slight return of positive natural growth, a sudden drop in international migration in 2025 has had a large impact on overall growth in the last year.
In California, migration out of the state continues to be a key driver of population decline, outweighing moderately positive natural change and net international migration.
Stronger natural change in Colorado is matched by growth from international migration, together overcoming a recent, small, and negative net domestic migration trend.
The Zoom-town years of rapid domestic migration to Montana post-COVID are over, and these numbers have been declining since 2021, though they remain strong compared to other states in the West. By comparison, natural growth and international migration have played a negligible role in the state’s growth during that period.
Similar to Arizona, Nevada received most of its growth via a shifting mix of domestic and international migration while natural growth has slowly returned to the state in the last three years.
In Washington, a stable natural growth rate of about 0.25% per year has joined a relatively steady increase in the state’s international migration, offsetting a consistent trend of net zero or negative domestic migration over the last five years.
What is clear across Western states is that continued declines in international migration will keep driving population growth down for most of these six states, as international migration has been a major driver of Western U.S. growth in recent years.
Source: US Census Population Estimates Program.
Dwindling international immigration and a shrinking population poses significant economic, cultural and fiscal challenges to communities across the nation. The effects may be more pronounced than the latest data suggest.
Major outlets are right to frame the latest Census release as record-slow growth. But an earlier revision by the Census PEP—one that amplified the contribution of international immigration—and today’s U.S. policy platform, which has threatened to shut down that immigration in part or in whole, point to a different possibility: future revisions may show decline, rather than merely slow growth, nationwide. And negative population growth could seriously constrain the country’s ability to address local and national debt and to sustain economic growth.
Next week, we’ll focus on recent methodological changes in the Census estimates program that exemplify broader trends of mounting uncertainty around the nation’s most critical statistical data series.