Oregon’s Harney County is a vast, rural landscape built on agriculture. Alfalfa farming and cattle ranching are not just economic activities there; they are the backbone of the community. When the Oregon Water Resources Department proposed new rules to reduce groundwater pumping to protect long-term water supplies, they needed to understand what that would mean for farmers, local businesses, schools, and the county as a whole.
ECOnorthwest was hired to answer that question. We analyzed how a proposed reduction in groundwater use, phased in over decades, would affect agricultural revenues, jobs, property tax collections, and local ecosystems. To do this accurately, we interviewed local farmers across the region, worked with county assessors, and used an economic modeling tool called IMPLAN to trace how changes on the farm ripple out to feed stores, equipment dealers, restaurants, and grocery stores.
The work required balancing economic rigor with practical ground-truthing. Harney County is isolated, agricultural data is limited, and the stakes for residents are high. We conducted interviews and engaged directly with the Rules Advisory Committee to ensure our assumptions reflected local reality.
Our analysis found that full implementation of the proposed rules could reduce annual agricultural revenues by up to $41 million and eliminate between 160 and 320 jobs countywide. At the same time, reduced pumping would help protect springs and wetlands that support the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge and the recreation economy it anchors.
The report gave policymakers and community members a clear, honest picture of the tradeoffs ahead, and a foundation for planning transitions that could soften the economic impact over time.
